I’m going to start out by saying that I’m not against vaccines. I got a flu shot this year and I recently had a vaccine to prevent shingles. As far as I know, I’m up to date on all of my vaccines. So, I have no problem taking vaccines.
The vaccines for polio, smallpox, measles all have a couple of things in common. First, they prevent horrible diseases. Smallpox had a mortality rate of 30% and measles 6%. Polio wasn’t quite as fatal but many people who contract the disease are left with physical disabilities. Getting vaccinated against those diseases protects someone from contracting them in the first place. As such, taking a vaccine for those diseases has a very high reward.
These vaccines have also been around for decades and are proven to be safe. Their immediate side effects are well documented, and we know what the long-term effects are. So, we’re well aware of any risks associated with taking them.
Because the reward for taking any of those vaccines is high, and I understand the associated risks, I can determine that the benefits to me by taking the vaccines outweigh the risk of me having any adverse side effects. I was too young to decide for myself so my parents, like most parents, decided to have me vaccinated. My wife and I did the same for our son.
We know exactly who is most at risk for dying from COVID-19. It’s the elderly and infirm. I’m neither of those two. I’ve never used drugs, tobacco or alcohol. I’m not overweight, I eat healthy and get plenty of exercise. I’m about as healthy as someone my age can be. I’m healthier than a lot of people younger than me.
So, I’m not the least bit concerned about dying from COVID-19. Yes, some seemingly healthy people do get sick and some do die but the risk of that happening is extremely low. I’m willing to accept that risk.
As such, the benefit to me of a vaccine to prevent COVID-19 is low. Since the reward is low, the risks would have to be extremely low before I would allow myself to be injected with any vaccine to prevent the disease.
But, while experts and pharmaceutical companies may have a handle on the short-term side effects, they have no idea what the long-term effects may be. “Operation Warp Speed” has fast-tracked COVID-19 vaccines through the development and approval process cutting years off the normal required timeframe. An mRNA vaccine is new technology and has never before been used at this scale, and none of the new vaccines have been adequately tested. There is no way to accelerate the passage of time and, without years of empirical observations, we won’t know for sure if there are any adverse long-term effects of being injected with a fast-tracked vaccine. Drug manufacturers have predicted that no adverse reactions will exist, but one man’s prediction is another man’s guess.
Pharmaceutical companies admit that there’s a lot they don’t know. They don’t know, exactly, how effective their drug is. They don’t know how long the immunity provided by their vaccine will last. They don’t know if a vaccinated person can still develop an asymptomatic infection. They don’t know if a vaccinated person can still infect others. But even though they don’t know any of these things, they’re still extremely confident that their vaccines are safe.
The overwhelming majority of people have nothing to fear from COVID-19. Those that catch it, will likely recover fine on their own. In fact, many people won’t even know they had it. There is no real need for most people to be vaccinated because our bodies can easily defend against the disease.
The pharmaceutical companies don’t know if being vaccinated will prevent you from spreading the disease and the first people scheduled to receive the vaccine are those most at risk. Therefore, the argument that we should all get vaccinated to protect others carries no weight. So, for me at least, reward for taking a COVID-19 vaccine remains very low.
Since the long-term side effects are currently unknown, and we have scant observational data from people who have taken the vaccines, I can’t effectively compare the benefit of taking the vaccine with the risk of potential side effects. Hopefully in the near future we’ll determine for sure that the drugs are safe. But we haven’t yet.
I have no problem taking vaccines. But I have a problem taking this one, because the reward associated with taking vaccine is low, and the risks are unknown. Will I take it? Maybe eventually. But I’m going to let a few million people be lab rats for a couple of years before I’ll feel I have enough data to make an informed decision.
