I woke up this morning with a realization. I believe weather forecasts more than I believe news reports.
Think about that for a bit. I trust someone to predict the future more than I trust someone to tell me about the past.
But why is this? It’s simple.
Meteorologists have no bias. They’re not trying to convince me of anything, they’re trying to inform me. Their goal is to be as accurate as possible with the data they have. If more or better data becomes available, they change their prediction to increase its accuracy. They continue to change their prediction making it more and more accurate until, eventually, we can look out the window and see for ourselves what’s actually happening outside.
There was a time not all that long ago when news organizations would pride themselves on being accurate. They would verify information using multiple sources to make sure they weren’t spreading rumors or falsehoods. They would search for new information and report the facts as they came available. But today, they don’t care about being accurate. They don’t care about the facts. They only care about being first.
But to be first, they need to beat other news organizations as well as hundreds of millions of people walking around with a smartphone and Internet access in the palm of their hands. If they can’t be first with a video, then they try to be first with a particular narrative.
If you haven’t seen this in action then you’re not paying attention. Just this week I saw a video of Kyle Rittenhouse firing his weapon. The talking head said, “We don’t know what happened before or after this video or if the shooter is a white supremacist.” Not only were they showing a video with no context, they introduced into the narrative the inference of white supremacy being involved.
Unfortunately, many people completely believe whatever they see or hear, regardless of the source. They see the above example and immediately believe that a white supremacist fired on “mostly-peaceful protesters”. Once they’ve made up their minds, no amount of new data will change it. Making matters even worse, news organizations rarely change their narrative when more or better data becomes available.
The good news is that every single person already has the skills to protect themselves from irresponsible journalism. Even you. All you need to do is look at the news exactly how you look at the weather forecasts.
If the long-range forecast for next Wednesday says it’s going to rain do you hold firm forever the belief that it’s going to rain on Wednesday? Of course not. You’re going to keep an eye on the weather forecasts, maybe even check a couple of different sources and adjust your belief about next week’s weather based on new and better data. Then, when Wednesday arrives, you’re going to look outside and decide for yourself if it’s going to rain.
Now, apply those same critical thinking skills to the news.
If you see a breaking news item, consider it to be a guess instead of a fact. Because, in the rush to be first, the information isn’t being verified and a guess is exactly what it is. Check a couple different sources and wait to see if the guess changes over time. Adjust your beliefs if necessary, as new and better data comes your way. Eventually, when all the evidence becomes available, you can look and see for yourself what really happened.
To put it another way, set your default “outrage” level for breaking news items to mid-range, say 5 or 6. As you learn more about what’s really going on, you can dial up or down your outrage based on facts and not conjecture and untruths. If you find your outrage is justified, you can turn the dial all the way to 11. But, if you find that the new data warrants it, you can dial it down just as easily. If you start at maximum outrage, you will lose your objectivity and may inadvertently cause someone harm before you realize you only have a small part of the story.
Maybe, someday, the news will again be something we can trust more than a weather forecast. But until then, we all need to beware that what we’re being told oftentimes isn’t the whole story. And look beyond our screens to find the truth.
